To the astonishment of the whole world, against the protest of the American elites, Donald Trump won the presidential election of 2016. Whether you like him or not, President Trump will usher in a new era.

 

Will he fulfill all the promises of the campaign? Will he “make America great again”? Will he bring America back to isolationism? How would he push forward the foreign policy? These issues are all closely followed by the world.

 

As for China, it is more concerned about the America’s China policy under the leadership of Trump.

America’s Political Cycle Influences China-US Relations

Obviously, America’s political cycle and alternation of presidents have considerable influence on China-US relations.

 

During the decades of the presidential terms of President Reagan, George Bush, Clinton and George W. Bush, China-US relations tended to move upward from a low point after the Presidents swore in. They usually criticized China in the presidential campaign and exerted great pressure on China in the early stage of their office. With more bilateral contacts, the relations became better.

 

In the Obama era it was the other way around since China-US relations tended to move downward from a high point. In the early period of his presidency, President Obama even proposed the G2 strategy to gain China’s favor. However, he then changed his position and put forward the Asia-Pacific pivot strategy in politics, designed the TPP mechanism in economics to exclude China, and created military tensions in the Asia-Pacific region via the South China Sea issue.

 

Both competitions and cooperation are common in China-US relations. In the American perspective, there are China Collapse and China Rise theories. Nowadays, the Collapse theory is not popular while the China Threat theory is on the rise. As political realists, the American Hawks think that there is no way for China and the US to avoid the Thucydides trap. A rising China will surely challenge the hegemony of the US and the transfer of hegemony cannot be achieved without wars.

 

China proposed to develop the new model of major country relations, the essence of which is no conflicts, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation. Under this framework, China and the US have developed over 90 dialogue mechanisms, covering various areas such as politics, military, business and trade, sci-tech and environment.

 

Instead of providing immediate solutions to the problems, these dialogue mechanisms are used to facilitate communication, avoid misjudgment and prevent China and the US from confrontation.

 

Bilateral relations have witnessed thriving progress in business and trade. In 2014, bilateral trade volume reached a record high of $555.1 billion, up by 6.6%. The export and import of China were $396.1 billion and $159 billion, up by 7.5% and 4.2 % respectively. The trade surplus was $237.1 billion, up by 9.9%. In 2015, bilateral trade volume was $558.39 billion, growing slower than before. However, due to the oil price drop and other exterior factors, China exceeded Canada to be the No. 1 trading partner of the US.

 

Behind the impressive trade volume are big troubles, and China has become a “scapegoat” for the sluggish American economy. The American administration in recent years think that the Chinese people steal working opportunities from the Americans, China is dumping in the US, the Chinese government manipulates RMB exchange rate, and China is not a full market economy for not opening its market to the US.

 

In the military area, the key to America’s Asia-Pacific pivot strategy is the containment against China. So America reduced its station troops in Europe and improved its military existence in the Aisa-Pacific region. In the past years, the US has strengthened its alliance with Japan and ROK, became more aggressive to seize the Philippines, Malaysia and Myanmar, and built a “Pacific Rim” around China.

 

The South China Sea issue is a touchstone of the resolution of China and the US. The confrontations of the military vessels and jets in the South China Sea were watched by the whole world with anxiety.

 

The good news is that China and the US have smooth military communication channels. The major military dialogue and communication mechanisms include: China-US military hotline, China-US Consultation on Maritime Military Security,  China-US Consultation on Strategic Security, Multilateral Arms Control and Non-proliferation at Vice-Foreign Ministerial level, Consultation of Defense Affairs at Vice-Foreign Ministerial level of the National Defense Ministry, China-US Consultation on Arms Control and Anti-proliferation at Director-General level, China-US Conference of Retired Senior Generals, China-US Conference of Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-proliferation, etc.

Trump Diplomacy Seen through the Campaign

As an old Chinese saying goes, a man should not only be judged by his words, but also his deeds. We can make a rough prediction of Trump diplomacy from what he said on diplomacy in the campaign.

 

First, Trump diplomacy will be more focused on profit than values. America’s diplomacy is like a pendulum swinging between idealism and realism. In general, the Democrats tend to be idealists while the Republicans tend to be realists. Trump criticized Hillary for advocating democracy in the Middle East and messing up the situation there. As a businessman, Trump is more profit-oriented, so he will be more pragmatic in handling American’s foreign affairs than Obama.

 

Second, Trump diplomacy will be more flexible. When it comes to diplomacy, it is often said that there are no eternal enemies or friends, but only eternal interest. This is very much the case with Trump. He showed his affection on Putin in the campaign and expressed his willingness to improve America’s relations with Russia, which is to the expectation of Putin. With the improvement of US-Russia relations, Trump will have more cards at hand in the Middle East, Europe and even the Asia Pacific.

 

Third, Trump will not retreat to isolationism. During the campaign, Trump said that he would make America great again. He proposed to ask EU, Japan and ROK to share the military expenditure, and opposed to the act of spreading democracy across the world. The outsiders guessed that he would take America back to isolationism. He did not mean it, actually. The American interest is too global to be taken back, and Trump knows it very well. He and his team need to decide what kind of global affairs need to be strengthened and otherwise.

 

After all, what Trump said has revealed his thoughts and style, but will be checked by the Administration, the Congress and entrepreneurs. Something is just lip service, something can be achieved, and much more requires a long gaming process.

China-US Relations: Not too Pessimistic

Before the election, I was interviewed by ZDF and asked to share my opinion on the trend of China-US Relations under Trump and Clinton.

 

I told them that if Hillary were elected, China would face more pressure. Hillary would continue with the Asia-Pacific pivot strategy and increase pressure on China, including a strong position on the South China Sea issue, deepening cooperation with allies like Japan and ROK, and gaining support from ASEAN members such as Indonesia and Myanmar. The biggest variable is whether Hillary can save TPP during her office. If TPP is rejected by the Congress, it is not helpful for the American influence in Asia and checking China.

 

If Trump assumes office and adopts the “America First” policy, it is helpful to improve China-US relations in East Asia. Trump will be harder on China in business, trade, employment and investment, so in the short term China-US trade relations will encounter some turbulence. However, Trump is a businessman who is practical and good at negotiation, so he would soon find a balance point with China. He is asking for China’s money so is unlikely to be critical of China’s human rights.

 

Trump is now in the office and China-US relations will face more challenges, partly because Trump is not a predictable person. Turbulence and setbacks are unavoidable, and China-US relations need more time for adjustment. How long the adjustment will take depends on the willingness and coordination capacity of both leaders and their teams. It can be predicted that China-US relations will improve after the adjustment. In other words, China-US relations in the Trump era will probably move upward from a low point.

 

China-US relations have three aspects—bilateral relations, the Asia-Pacific region and the world as a whole.

 

The biggest obstacle in China-US relations is the Taiwan question. As long as Trump does not challenge China’s core interest in this respect, bilateral political relations will not have big problems.

 

Bilateral trade relations will be the focus of future China-US gaming, and China will surely face enormous pressure. The key is whether Trump identifies China as a manipulator of exchange rate. If this can be overcome, we will have more flexibility in issues like anti-dumping and trade imbalance. America needs money to achieve its goal of economic growth and employment, so China can seize the opportunity to negotiate with them for more convenience for Chinese enterprises investing in the US, and even consider buying more American bonds. In the long term, the US is at a low point instead of in a recession.

 

Trump is committed to abandoning TPP favored by Obama. His recent remarks also confirmed this point. According to this logic, the US might support China’s “One Belt One Road” initiative, and might even join AIIB as well.

 

In the global arena, China and the US are more cooperative than competitive. To address the chaos in the Middle East, climate change and energy crisis requires the cooperation of China and the US, and there is more room for cooperation.

 

The difficulty of China-US relations lies in the Asia-Pacific region, and the key to the difficulty is the nuclear issue of DPRK and the South China Sea issue.

 

As President Duterte of the Philippines approached China and got huge orders and assistance from China, the South China Sea issue has cooled down. Although neither side emphasized this on a legal basis with a high profile, China has made some concessions in allowing the Philippine fishermen to fish near Huangyan Island. With the improvement of bilateral relations, the US lost a pioneer in the Asia-Pacific which can press China. 

 

The nuclear issue of DPRK is a real problem. Trump said that he would like to talk to Kim Jong-un, and China is the only big power supporting DPRK. After Trump won the election, DPRK did not send a telegraph of congratulations, and KCNA commented “Is it the time for a change of ideas?” in which they tried to persuade the American leaders to change the mindset since “Now it is the time for the US to decide how to work with an oriental nuclear power”.

 

There are both challenges and opportunities.

 

China-ROK relations suffering from the tensions caused by Sade missile system also see new opportunities. The administration of Park Geun-hye is shaking, and the US is going through power transition. Whether Sade missile will be deployed or not is probably another chip affecting the future of the Korean peninsula.

 

It can be predicted that Trump is as determined as his predecessors to preserve the role of the US as a superpower, and he is also aware of the challenges brought by the growing strength of China. Although he is no longer using “Asia-Pacific pivot”, he will continue to increase pressure on China.

 

For Trump, it is more important to handle the balance between its relations with China and with other allies. He said that he would ask Japan and ROK to share more military expenditure or even withdraw American troops based in ROK, which has created anxieties among the Japanese and Korean government. It can be foreseen that he did not mean it. 

 

China-US relations are complicated and used to ups and downs. We do not need to be too pessimistic about the future of China-US relations in the Trump era.

 

(The author is the Vice-President of LeTV and senior researcher at the Charhar Institute)